Ken Simonson's blog

CMD, Dodge, Lodging Econometrics reports imply spending gain; higher ed faces hurdle

Editor’s note:  Construction Citizen is proud to partner with AGC America to bring you AGC Chief Economist Ken Simonson's Data DIGest. Check back each week to get Ken's expert analysis of what's happening in our industry.

Several recent private indicators point to expanding construction activity ahead. The value of nonresidential construction starts grew 11% from October 2013 to October 2014 and 7.5% year-to-date for the first 10 months of 2014 combined compared to the same period last year, CMD (formerly Reed Construction Data) reported last Thursday, based on data it collected. Nonresidential building starts increased 9.8% year-over-year and 5.7% year-to-date, with commercial building categories up 25% and 4.8% respectively, and institutional buildings up 5.2% and 7.6%. Heavy engineering starts climbed 9.8% and 5.7%.   [node:read-more:link]

Employment rises in October; spending falls in September; Dodge predicts healthy 2015

Editor’s note:  Construction Citizen is proud to partner with AGC America to bring you AGC Chief Economist Ken Simonson's Data DIGest. Check back each week to get Ken's expert analysis of what's happening in our industry.

Sign up now for November 20 AGC/AIA/CMD (formerly Reed) webinar.

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 214,000, seasonally adjusted, in October and 2,804,000 (1.9%) over 12 months, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported last Friday. Construction employment increased by 12,000 for the month and 231,000 (3.9%) over the year to 6,095,000, the highest total since May 2009. Residential construction employment (residential building and specialty trade contractors) climbed by 8,000 for the month and 130,600 (6.0%) for the year. Nonresidential employment (building, specialty trades, and heavy and civil engineering construction) increased by 3,600 in October and 99,800 (2.7%) year-over-year.   [node:read-more:link]

More metros add jobs in September; architecture billings rise; retail outlook stays bleak

Editor’s note:  Construction Citizen is proud to partner with AGC America to bring you AGC Chief Economist Ken Simonson's Data DIGest. Check back each week to get Ken's expert analysis of what's happening in our industry.

Sign up now for Nov. 20 AGC/AIA/CMD (formerly Reed) webinar.

From September 2013 to September 2014, construction employment increased in 236 out of 339 metropolitan areas (including divisions of larger metros) for which BLS reports construction data, declined in 53 and was unchanged in 50, according to an analysis that AGC released last Wednesday. (BLS combines mining and logging with construction in most metros to avoid disclosing data for industries with few firms. Because metro data is not seasonally adjusted, comparisons with months other than September are not meaningful.) Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown added the most construction jobs in the past year (13,500 construction jobs, 7%), followed by the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale division (10,100 construction jobs, 9%) and the Dallas-Plano-Irving division (9,900 combined jobs, 9%). The largest percentage gains occurred in Owensboro, Ky. (33%, 900 combined jobs), Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, Fla. (26%, 1,000 combined jobs) and Lake Charles, La. (25%, 2,700 construction jobs). Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale again lost the most jobs (-6,900 construction jobs, -7%), followed by the Bethesda-Rockville-Frederick, Md. division (-4,100 combined jobs, -12%).   [node:read-more:link]

Contractors report trouble finding workers, expect worse ahead as employment picks up

Editor’s note:  Construction Citizen is proud to partner with AGC America to bring you AGC Chief Economist Ken Simonson's Data DIGest. Check back each week to get Ken's expert analysis of what's happening in our industry.

Contractors report increasing difficulty finding qualified workers.  AGC reported last Wednesday that 83% of the 1,086 respondents to a survey it conducted in late August and September said their firms were having a hard time filling craft worker positions and 61% said the same about key professional positions. (In a survey AGC released in January, 53% reported difficulty filling craft positions and 45% reported difficulty filling professional positions.) Of 12 crafts included in the survey, the most-cited position was carpenters, with 66% of firms that employ carpenters saying they are hard to find. Other hard-to-fill crafts included roofers (listed by 64% of firms that employ them); equipment operators (59%); plumbers (54%); electricians (52%); iron workers, laborers and pipefitters/welders (49% each); and cement masons (48%).   [node:read-more:link]

PPIs remain mild in September; employment rises; construction spending drops in August

Editor’s note:  Construction Citizen is proud to partner with AGC America to bring you AGC Chief Economist Ken Simonson's Data DIGest. Check back each week to get Ken's expert analysis of what's happening in our industry.

The producer price index (PPI) for final demand dropped 0.3%, not seasonally adjusted (-0.1%, seasonally adjusted), in September and rose 1.6% over 12 months, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported last Wednesday. AGC posted an explanation and tables focusing on construction prices and costs. Final demand includes goods, services and five types of nonresidential buildings that BLS says make up 34% of total construction. There are no indexes yet for other building types, or for residential or nonbuilding construction. The PPI for final demand construction, not seasonally adjusted, was flat in September and rose 3.0% over 12 months. The overall PPI for new nonresidential building construction—a measure of the price contractors say they would charge to build a fixed set of five categories of buildings—was flat for the month and up 3.1% since September 2013. The PPI for new warehouse construction fell 0.1% in September and rose 2.2% over 12 months; offices, 0.1% and 3.2%, respectively; industrial buildings, 0 and 3.3%; school buildings, -0.1% and 3.4%; and health care buildings, 0 and 2.7%. PPIs for new, repair and maintenance work on nonresidential buildings by concrete contractors rose 0.1% and 1.5%; electrical contractors, 0 and 1.0%; plumbing contractors, 0 and 4.7%; and roofers, -0.4% and 4.9%.   [node:read-more:link]

Cost increases widen, three surveys report; AIA finds billings rise, stalled projects revive

Editor’s note:  Construction Citizen is proud to partner with AGC America to bring you AGC Chief Economist Ken Simonson's Data DIGest. Check back each week to get Ken's expert analysis of what's happening in our industry.

“Current construction costs increased for the 32nd consecutive month in September,” IHS and the Procurement Executives Group (PEG) reported last Wednesday.  “The headline current IHS PEG Engineering and Construction Cost Index (ECCI) registered 57.8% in September, up from 53% in August, and by a narrow margin, the highest reading since March 2013….The materials/equipment component of the ECCI strengthened to 59.0%, up 5.5 [percentage points] from August….all 12 components show[ed] higher prices, following an August reading that showed six components either neutral or falling.   [node:read-more:link]

Construction employment rises in 36 states; BLS, Means, FHWA price indexes diverge

Editor’s note:  Construction Citizen is proud to partner with AGC America to bring you AGC Chief Economist Ken Simonson's Data DIGest. Check back each week to get Ken's expert analysis of what's happening in our industry.

Seasonally adjusted construction employment increased in 36 states from August 2013 to August 2014, decreased in 12 states and the District of Columbia, and remained flat in Idaho and New Hampshire, an AGC analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data released last Friday showed. Florida again added the most jobs (43,500 jobs, 12%), followed by California (35,600, 5.6%) and Texas (27,700, 4.5%). The largest percentage gains were in Nevada (13%, 7,200 jobs), Florida, Utah (11%, 8,400) and Delaware (11%, 2,100). New Jersey had the worst construction job losses, -11,300 jobs and -8.1%, followed by Arizona, -5,400, -4.4% (fourth highest percentage loss); Mississippi, -3,700, -7.1% (second in percent lost); and West Virginia, -1,800, -5.3% (third in percent lost).   [node:read-more:link]

Employment hits 5-year high in August; Manpower poll implies more hiring next quarter

Editor’s note:  Construction Citizen is proud to partner with AGC America to bring you AGC Chief Economist Ken Simonson's Data DIGest. Check back each week to get Ken's expert analysis of what's happening in our industry.

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 142,000, seasonally adjusted, in August and 2,482,000 (1.8%) over 12 months, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on September 5. Construction employment rose by 20,000 for the month and 232,000 (4.0%) over the year to 6,068,000, the highest total since May 2009. Residential construction employment (residential building and specialty trade contractors) climbed by 13,200 for the month and 123,100 (5.7%) for the year. Nonresidential employment (building, specialty trades, and heavy and civil engineering construction) increased by 6,400 in August and 108,600 (3.0%) year-over-year. All five residential and nonresidential segments added workers for the month and year.   [node:read-more:link]

Construction spending hits 5-1/2 year high; more metros add jobs; Beige Book is sunny

Editor’s note:  Construction Citizen is proud to partner with AGC America to bring you AGC Chief Economist Ken Simonson's Data DIGest. Check back each week to get Ken's expert analysis of what's happening in our industry.

Construction spending in July totaled $981 billion at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, up 1.8% from the rate in June, up 8.2% from July 2013, and the highest level since December 2008, the Census Bureau reported last Tuesday. Census revised up the totals for June (by $14 billion) and May ($5 billion). Private residential spending increased 0.7% for the month and 8.0% over the latest 12 months; private nonresidential spending, 2.1% and 14%, respectively; and public construction spending, 3.0% and 2.1%.   [node:read-more:link]

39 states add jobs in July; housing starts and permits, MHC, ABI show big gains

Editor’s note:  Construction Citizen is proud to partner with AGC America to bring you AGC Chief Economist Ken Simonson's Data DIGest. Check back each week to get Ken's expert analysis of what's happening in our industry.

View July state employment tables by state and rank here. Please note the next Data DIGest will be sent the week of Sept.2.

Seasonally adjusted construction employment increased in 39 states from July 2013 to July 2014 and decreased in 11 states and the District of Columbia, an AGC analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data released last Monday showed. The largest percentage gains were in Nevada (13%, 7,500 jobs), Delaware (13%, 2,600) and Florida (11%, 41,700). Florida again added the most jobs, followed by Texas (23,600, 3.8%) and California (22,600, 3.6%). The steepest 12-month percentage losses again occurred in New Jersey (-6.5%, -8,900), followed by West Virginia (-5.8%, -2,000), Mississippi (-5.6%, -2,900) and Arizona (-4.8%, -5,900). New Jersey also had the highest number of lost jobs, followed by Arizona, Mississippi and West Virginia.   [node:read-more:link]