Ken Simonson's blog

Contractors, corporate economists show optimism; 2014 Dodge starts rose moderately

Editor’s note: Construction Citizen is proud to partner with AGC America to bring you AGC Chief Economist Ken Simonson's Data DIGest. Check back each week to get Ken's expert analysis of what's happening in our industry.

Contractors are more optimistic about the overall state of construction in 2015 than in the previous five years, according to an annual Construction Outlook Survey that AGC released on Wednesday. Of the 912 respondents from AGC member companies, 80% said they expect an increase in their firms' headcount in 2015, while only 7% expect a decrease. About 60% expect the construction market to grow in 2015, while 21% expect growth to resume in 2016. Respondents were asked if they expect the dollar volume that they compete for to be higher or lower in 2015. Predictions of higher volume outnumber lower    [node:read-more:link]

PPI falls in 2014; mixed price changes loom; nonresidential construction pay accelerates

Editor’s note: Construction Citizen is proud to partner with AGC America to bring you AGC Chief Economist Ken Simonson's Data DIGest. Check back each week to get Ken's expert analysis of what's happening in our industry.

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The producer price index (PPI) for final demand decreased 0.4%, not seasonally adjusted (-0.3%, seasonally adjusted), in December and increased 1.1% for the year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Thursday. AGC posted an explanation and tables focusing on construction prices and costs. Final demand includes goods, services and five types of nonresidential buildings that BLS says make up 34% of total construction. There are no indexes yet for other building types, or for residential or nonbuilding construction.    [node:read-more:link]

Jobs added in 2014 are most since 2005; union pay raises inch up; retail metrics improve

Editor’s note: Construction Citizen is proud to partner with AGC America to bring you AGC Chief Economist Ken Simonson's Data DIGest. Check back each week to get Ken's expert analysis of what's happening in our industry.

If you have not already, please help AGC craft its 2015 Construction Business Outlook and take this short survey.

Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 252,000 in December, seasonally adjusted, and by 2,952,000 (2.1%) over 12 months, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday. Construction employment rose by 48,000 for the month and 290,000 (4.9%) over the year to 6,166,000, the highest total since March 2009 and the largest annual increase since 2005. Residential construction employment (residential building and specialty trade contractors) climbed by 13,500 for the month and 132,100 (6.0%) for the year.    [node:read-more:link]

Construction spending slips in November; two-thirds of metros add jobs in year

Editor’s note: Construction Citizen is proud to partner with AGC America to bring you AGC Chief Economist Ken Simonson's Data DIGest. Check back each week to get Ken's expert analysis of what's happening in our industry.

Construction spending in November totaled $975 billion at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, down 0.3% from the upwardly revised rate in October and up 2.4% from November 2013, the Census Bureau reported on Monday. Private residential spending rose 0.9% for the month but slipped 0.5% over the latest 12 months; private nonresidential spending dipped 0.3% month-over-month but grew 4.7% year-over- year; and public construction spending fell fell 1.7% and rose 3.2%, respectively.    [node:read-more:link]

Most states add jobs but remain below peak; Dodge reports surge in starts

Editor’s note:  Construction Citizen is proud to partner with AGC America to bring you AGC Chief Economist Ken Simonson's Data DIGest. Check back each week to get Ken's expert analysis of what's happening in our industry.

Seasonally adjusted construction employment increased in 38 states and the District of Columbia from November 2013 to November 2014 and decreased in 12 states, an AGC analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data released last Friday showed. Texas added the most jobs (47,300 jobs, 7.7%), followed by California (40,800, 6.3%) and Florida (34,900, 9.1%). The largest percentage gains were in North Dakota (16%, 5,300 jobs), Utah (10%, 7,600) and Florida. The largest percentage losses occurred in West Virginia (-11%, -3,800 jobs), Mississippi (-7.9%, -4,200), New Jersey (-4.5%, -6,200), and Nebraska (-4.1%, -1,900). New Jersey lost the most jobs, followed by Arizona (-4,600, -3.7%), Mississippi and West Virginia. For the month, 26 states and D.C. added construction jobs, 22 states lost jobs, and Idaho and Missouri had no change. Only North Dakota, Oklahoma and Louisiana have topped pre-recession construction employment peaks. (BLS combines mining and logging with construction in D.C., Nebraska and five other states to avoid disclosing data for industries with few firms.)   [node:read-more:link]

PPI falls in November as diesel price plunges; mixed moves foreseen for materials costs

Editor’s note: Construction Citizen is proud to partner with AGC America to bring you AGC Chief Economist Ken Simonson's Data DIGest. Check back each week to get Ken's expert analysis of what's happening in our industry.

The producer price index (PPI) for final demand decreased 0.4%, not seasonally adjusted (-0.2%, seasonally adjusted), in November and increased 1.4% over 12 months, BLS reported Friday. AGC posted an explanation and tables focusing on construction prices and costs. Final demand includes goods, services and five types of nonresidential buildings that BLS says make up 34% of total construction. There are no indexes yet for other building types, or for residential or nonbuilding construction. The PPI for final demand construction, not seasonally adjusted, rose 0.1% in November and 2.2% over 12 months. The overall PPI for new nonresidential building construction—a measure of the price contractors say they would charge to build a fixed set of five categories of buildings—also climbed 0.1% for the month and 2.2% since November 2013.    [node:read-more:link]

Construction employment hits 5½ year high in November; spending climbs in October

Editor’s note:  Construction Citizen is proud to partner with AGC America to bring you AGC Chief Economist Ken Simonson's Data DIGest. Check back each week to get Ken's expert analysis of what's happening in our industry.

Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 321,000 in December, seasonally adjusted, and by 2,734,000 (2.0%) over 12 months, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday. Construction employment rose by 20,000 for the month and 213,000 (3.6%) over the year to 6,109,000, the highest total since April 2009. Residential construction employment (residential building and specialty trade contractors) climbed by 16,700 for the month and 122,800 (5.6%) for the year. Nonresidential employment (building, specialty trades, and heavy and civil engineering construction) increased by 3,600 in November and 90,100 (2.4%) year-over-year. Average hourly earnings for all employees in construction rose 2.7% from November 2013 to November 2014, the largest year-over-year increase since September 2009 and double the 1.3% increase recorded a year earlier. The number of jobseekers who last worked in construction hit an eight-year low of 629,000 and their unemployment rate fell to the lowest November level in seven years:   [node:read-more:link]

Most states record job gains through October; PPIs for inputs, highway cost index slide

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Sign up now for December 4 NABE Webinar with economists from AGC, AIA and Redin.

Seasonally adjusted construction employment increased in 37 states and the District of Columbia from October 2013 to October 2014, decreased in 12 states, and remained flat in Hawaii, an AGC analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data released last Friday showed. Florida again added the most jobs (38,900 jobs, 10.2%), followed by Texas (38,500, 6.2%) and California (34,300, 5.3%). The largest percentage gains were in North Dakota (15%, 4,900 jobs), Utah (14.9%, 11,000) and Florida.   [node:read-more:link]

CMD, Dodge, Lodging Econometrics reports imply spending gain; higher ed faces hurdle

Editor’s note:  Construction Citizen is proud to partner with AGC America to bring you AGC Chief Economist Ken Simonson's Data DIGest. Check back each week to get Ken's expert analysis of what's happening in our industry.

Several recent private indicators point to expanding construction activity ahead. The value of nonresidential construction starts grew 11% from October 2013 to October 2014 and 7.5% year-to-date for the first 10 months of 2014 combined compared to the same period last year, CMD (formerly Reed Construction Data) reported last Thursday, based on data it collected. Nonresidential building starts increased 9.8% year-over-year and 5.7% year-to-date, with commercial building categories up 25% and 4.8% respectively, and institutional buildings up 5.2% and 7.6%. Heavy engineering starts climbed 9.8% and 5.7%.   [node:read-more:link]

Employment rises in October; spending falls in September; Dodge predicts healthy 2015

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Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 214,000, seasonally adjusted, in October and 2,804,000 (1.9%) over 12 months, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported last Friday. Construction employment increased by 12,000 for the month and 231,000 (3.9%) over the year to 6,095,000, the highest total since May 2009. Residential construction employment (residential building and specialty trade contractors) climbed by 8,000 for the month and 130,600 (6.0%) for the year. Nonresidential employment (building, specialty trades, and heavy and civil engineering construction) increased by 3,600 in October and 99,800 (2.7%) year-over-year.   [node:read-more:link]