AGC Data DIGest: Dec. 22, 2021-Jan. 4, 2022 [1]
Construction spending rose by 0.4% from an upwardly revised October rate to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.63 trillion in November, the Census Bureau reported [8] on Monday. Private residential and nonresidential spending both posted monthly and year-over-year (y/y) increases, while public construction spending declined. Year-to-date spending in the first 11 months of 2021 climbed 7.9% compared to the total for January-November 2020. Private residential construction spending increased 0.9% for the month, 16% y/y, and 24% year-to-date (single-family rose 34% year-to-date; multifamily, 16%; and owner-occupied improvements, 13%). Private nonresidential construction spending increased by 0.1% for the month and 6.7% y/y but trailed by 4.6% year-to-date. The largest private nonresidential segment (ranked by year-to-date spending)—power—rose 0.1% for the month but declined 0.5% year-to-date (including electric power, up 0.6% year-to-date, and oil and gas field structures and pipelines, down 4.3% year-to-date), followed by commercial, down 0.1% for the month but up 3.9% year-to-date (including warehouse, up 15% year-to-date, and retail, down 10% year-to-date); manufacturing, up 0.9% for the month and 5.5% year-to-date; and office, unchanged for the month and down 7.1% year-to-date. Lodging had the largest year-to-date decrease, -32%. Public construction spending dipped 0.1% for the month and 4.3% year-to-date. The largest public segment, highway and street construction, slipped 0.8% for the month and 0.3% year-to-date. Public education construction edged up 0.3% for the month but slumped 7.5% year-to-date. Public transportation construction declined 0.5% from October and 5.7% year-to-date.
Construction employment, not seasonally adjusted, rose from November 2020 to November 2021 in 237 (66%) of the 358 metro areas (including divisions of larger metros) for which BLS posts [9] construction employment data, fell in 74 (21%) and was unchanged in 47, according to an analysis AGC released [10] on December 22. (BLS reports combined totals for mining, logging, and construction in most metro areas, to avoid disclosing data about industries with few employers; AGC assumes the construction-only changes in these areas match the combined change.) The largest loss again occurred in the Nassau County-Suffolk County, N.Y. division (-6,300 combined jobs, -8%), followed by the Orange-Rockland-Westchester counties, N.Y. division (-3,900 combined jobs, -9%); the Calvert-Charles-Prince George’s counties, Md. division (-2,700 combined jobs, -8%); Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, Texas (-2,600 construction jobs, -1%); and Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, Tenn. (-2,600 combined jobs, -5%). Evansville, Ind.-Ky. again experienced the steepest percentage decline (-18%, -1,800 combined jobs), followed by Leominster-Gardner, Mass. (-14%, -300 combined jobs); Anchorage, Alaska (-11%, -1,100 combined jobs); Altoona, Pa. (-10%, -300 combined jobs); and Florence-Muscle Shoals, Ala. (-10%, -400 combined jobs). Sacramento--Roseville--Arden-Arcade again added the most jobs (7,300 construction jobs, 10%), followed by the Seattle-Bellevue-Everett division (7,000 construction jobs, 7%); the Chicago-Naperville-Arlington Heights division (6,500 construction jobs, 5%); the Boston-Cambridge-Newton division (6,200 combined jobs, 8%); and Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, Minn.-Wis. (6,100 combined jobs, 7%). Sioux Falls, S.D. had the highest percentage increase, 19% (1,800 combined jobs), followed by three metros with 16% increases: Beaumont-Port Arthur, Texas (2,700 combined jobs); Atlantic City-Hammonton, N.J. (800 combined jobs) and Waterbury, Conn. (500 combined jobs). Eleven areas set new lows [11] for November and 45 set new highs [11], in series dating in most cases to 1990.
There were 345,000,000 job openings in construction, seasonally adjusted, at the end of November, or 4.4% of total openings plus employment, the BLS reported [12] today in its latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) release. Openings jumped 32% y/y, and the number and rate of openings rate were the highest for any month in the 21-year history of the series, an indication of the difficulty contractors are having in filling positions. Hires totaled 423,000, an 8.7% increase y/y.
In a hopeful sign for construction employment, “education for the skilled trades appears to be returning to fashion, according to enrollment trends, survey data and other signals,” The Hechinger Report, a national nonprofit newsroom focused on education, reported [13] on Friday. “In Utah, enrollment rose in the fall at seven of the state’s eight technical colleges, according to the Utah System of Higher Education. South Dakota’s Lake Area Technical College saw an 8.1% increase. The number of people training for the trades at Georgia Piedmont Technical College rose 13% this fall over last fall, the college says….And the career colleges run by ECMC Group, in Georgia, Florida and Texas, reported a collective 20% increase in the number of students last year and 16% this year. Those figures are particularly noteworthy against the backdrop of a nearly 8% decline in overall undergraduate college and university enrollment in the last two years, according to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.” The clearinghouse reported [14] on November 18, “Undergraduate enrollment has declined across all institution sectors. Enrollment decreases in public four-year and private for-profit four-year institutions were steeper than last fall. This fall, public four-year institutions declined 2.5% vs a 1.6% loss last fall. Private for-profit four-year institutions this fall dropped 8.5% vs a 2.6% drop last fall. Enrollment at private nonprofit four-year institutions remained largely stable (-0.6%) while community college enrollment continued to fall, but at a slower rate than last fall (-6.0% vs. -9.4% last fall). Community college enrollment is now down a total of 14.8% since 2019.” These declines imply that the 14% year-to-date downturn in higher-education construction spending is likely to continue in 2022.