The following article was authored by Charles Frantes and originally published on TexasGOPVote [10].

During a recent Rational Middle Podcast [11], Steven Scarborough, Strategic Initiatives Manager at the Center for Houston’s Future (CHF), discussed CFH’s updated research [12] on how immigration rates will affect the Greater Houston Area’s future economic growth.  

Scarborough said that overall, the CHF’s report [13] found that immigration rates and economic growth are directly correlated and that immigration will be necessary to fuel Houston’s economic growth in the coming decades.

“Projecting GDP for 2040, a restricted immigration scenario with 30 percent less immigration causes a $47 billion economic loss, and an increased immigration scenario with 30 percent more immigration produces a $62 billion economic gain from the status quo,” Scarborough said.

He also explained that the report found recent drastic declines [14] in immigration following COVID-19 have already had a significant negative impact on their models for Houston’s future economic growth.

“Recent declines in immigration rates depressed the projected economic benefits for the region from immigration: While our 2019 report indicated a $67 billion GDP benefit under the increased immigration scenario, this figure dropped by 7 percent to $62 billion when the Center ran the model in 2021,” said Scarborough.

The report also explained that a key reason immigrants fuel economic growth in Houston is that they are a source of population growth to fill workforce demands where native-born workers in the region continue to experience a decrease in population growth rates.

“Immigrants already make up nearly one-third of the region’s workforce. With employment growth among native citizens below 2 percent, Houston will need foreign immigration to continue expanding economically… Between 2019 and 2040, two in every five jobs added within the region will be filled by foreign-born workers,” said Scarborough.

Based on the report's updated immigration numbers, it also predicts that the immigrant share of Houston’s workforce will grow from 31% in 2019, to 36% in 2040.

Scarborough also highlighted some of the numbers from the CHF report that detail the large and growing share that immigrants make up of sector-specific workforces in the Houston Area. For example, in 2019 the immigrant share of labor in Houston’s energy sector was 29%, but it is expected to grow to 45% by 2040.