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AGC's Data DIGest: Sept. 17-20, 2024

Employment rises in 39 states in August; starts tumble, ConstructConnect reports; ABI slips again

Seasonally adjusted construction employment rose year-over-year (y/y) from August 2023 to August 2024 in 39 states, declined in 10 states and the District of Columbia, and held steady in Georgia, according to AGC’s analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data posted today. Texas added the most construction jobs (36,600 or 4.4%), followed by Florida (36,200, 5.7%), Michigan (15,100, 7.9%), and Nevada (12,700 jobs, 11.2%). The largest percentage increases again were in Alaska (17.8%, 3,100 jobs), Hawaii (12.4%, 4,700), and Nevada, followed by Montana (10.1%, 3,700). Maryland had the largest loss (-4,800, -3.0%), followed by New York (-4,700, -1.2%), Oregon (-2,400, -2.1%), Colorado (-2,400, -1.3%), and Minnesota (-2,000, -1.5%). Maine again had the largest percentage loss (-4.7%, -1,600 jobs), followed by Vermont (-3.1%, -500), Maryland, D.C. (-2.7%, -400 jobs), and Oregon. For the month, construction employment rose in 27 states and D.C., declined in 20 states, and was unchanged in Alaska, Kansas, and Maine. Texas added the most jobs (8,300 or 1.0%), followed by Virginia (2,300, 1.0%), Wisconsin (2,300, 1.6%), and Illinois (2,200, 0.9%). Wyoming had the largest percentage gain (2.3%, 500 jobs), followed by West Virginia (1.8%, 600), Wisconsin, and Montana (1.5%, 600). California lost the most construction jobs from July to August (-3,300 or -0.4%), followed by Tennessee (-2,500, -1.6%), New Jersey (-1,600, -1.0%), and Minnesota (-900, -0.7%). Tennessee lost the highest percentage of jobs (-1.2%, -800 jobs), followed by New Mexico (-1.1%, -600), New Jersey, and Rhode Island (-0.9%, -200). (For D.C., Delaware, and Hawaii, BLS posts combined totals for mining, logging, and construction; AGC treats the changes as all from construction.)

The value of construction starts fell 13% y/y in August and 2.4% year-to-date in the first eight months of 2024 compared to January-August 2023, data provider ConstructConnect reported on Thursday. Nonresidential building starts fell 9.4% and 9.6%, respectively. Heavy engineering (civil) starts rose 6.7% and 15%, respectively. Residential starts tumbled 30% y/y and 7.0% year-to-date, with single-family down 8.7% y/y but up 3.1% year-to-date and apartment starts down 68.5% and 24%, respectively. Among the 25 largest categories (by 2023 starts dollars), the best-performing year-to-date are: electric power infrastructure, +73%; airports, +61%; special and vocational schools, +52%; amusement, +38%; and water/sewage, +23%. Underperforming categories include military, -54%; manufacturing, -39%; warehouse, -26%; hotel/motel, -22%; and transportation terminals, -19%. The largest year-to-date percentage increases by state are in Rhode Island, 178%; Alaska, 109%; South Carolina 107%; and Virginia, 97%.

The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) decreased from an upwardly revised reading of 48.2 in July, seasonally adjusted, to 45.7 in August and remained below the breakeven 50 mark for the 19th-straight month, the American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported on Wednesday. AIA calls the index “a leading economic indicator of construction activity, providing an approximately 9-to-12-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity.” The ABI is derived from the share of responding architecture firms that report a gain in billings compared to the previous month less the share reporting a decline in billings, presented on a 0-to-100 scale. Readings for practice specialties, which are based on three-month averages, were all below 50 and varied little from July: mixed practice firms, 48.6, unchanged; institutional, 47.4, down from 47.5; commercial/industrial, 46.6, up from 45.4; and residential, 44.0, down from 44.3.

Housing starts (units) in August increased 9.6% from July and 3.9% y/y at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, the Census Bureau reported on Wednesday. Single-family starts climbed 16% and 5.2%, respectively. Multifamily (five or more units) starts slid 6.7% and 6.2%. Residential permits rose 4.9% for the month but declined 6.5% y/y. Single-family permits increased 2.8% for the month but dipped 0.5% y/y. Multifamily permits rose 8.4% from July but slumped 17% from a year earlier. Multifamily units under construction declined for the 11th month in a row, by 3.2% and 15% y/y.

“The average length of time to complete construction of a multifamily building after obtaining authorization was 19.9 months in 2023, according to the 2023 Survey of Construction (SOC) from the Census Bureau,” the National Association of Home Builders reported on Monday. “The permit-to-completion time inched up 0.1 months in 2023, after an increase of 2.3 months in 2022, as the ongoing skilled labor shortage and supply chain issues were still challenging the industry….The more units, the more time required to build. In 2023, buildings with 20 or more units took the longest time,22 months, to build after obtaining authorization. Properties with 10-to-19 units required 21.5 months. However, 2-to-4 unit buildings came in at 18.7 months, which took longer time than 5-to-9 unit buildings (16.9 months). Compared to 2019, pre-pandemic, only buildings with 5 to 9 units took a similar time to complete. The construction process required 3.3 more months to complete multifamily buildings with 2-to-4 units, 2.8 months more for 10-to-19 unit buildings, and 3 months longer to finish for properties with 20 or more units.”